The current El Nino, which began in June, kept vast swaths of the Earth’s ocean at record-warm temperatures
Climate scientists are speculating that 2024 could surpass 2023 in record-high annual average temperature based on several factors, including the ongoing El Nino climate pattern, which tends to raise global temperatures.
The current El Nino, which began in June, kept vast swaths of the ocean at record-warm temperatures throughout last year. The warm oceans will take several months to release the heat, which, in turn, will lead to climate fluctuations in 2024.
The last time a similar El Nino occurred in 2015-2016, it contributed to record warmth in 2016.
Additionally, if human-induced climate change (due to fossil fuels) adds to the El Nino, it could push the average planetary temperature more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial, 19th-century levels, worries Britain’s Met Office.
That said, the longer-term climate outlook depends on what follows after the current El Nino fades, which is expected by June 2024. The possibility of neutral climate conditions or the development of La Nina (known for planetary cooling) remains uncertain.