The IMF warned that trade uncertainty is hurting investment and raising costs|World Bank Photo Collection|CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast to 2.8% for 2025, down 0.5 percentage points from its January estimate. It blamed record-high US tariffs and growing trade tensions for the slowdown.

US growth is expected to slow to 1.8% this year, down from 2.8% in 2024. China’s outlook was cut to 4%, while global trade growth is expected to slow sharply to 1.7%, half of what it was last year.

The IMF also said inflation will fall more slowly, hitting 4.3% globally in 2025. US inflation is now expected at 3%, driven by higher prices and stronger demand for services.

Countries like Canada, Mexico, Germany, Japan and the UK are also facing slower growth. 

The IMF warned that trade uncertainty is hurting investment and raising costs. It called for structural reforms to support long-term growth and restore confidence in global trade.