Are we heading into a recession?

Economists warn that trade tensions, policy uncertainty and falling consumer confidence could lead to a recession. However, no single factor predicts it for sure.

Experts track key indicators like consumer spending, jobs and borrowing costs. While some areas remain strong—job openings and household spending—consumer confidence has dropped sharply.

Consumer spending and sentiment
According to economist Jeffrey Frankel, retail sales and consumer spending are early warning signs that directly indicate economic downturn. Census data shows sales are steady, but confidence is falling. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped 10.5% in March, while Google searches for “recession” are on the rise.

Facing uncertainty, memes with pop culture references are cropping up and serving as a way for Americans to process anxiety over the current economic conditions.

Even music reflects the economic mood. Some compare today’s pop scene to 2008, and Lady Gaga’s Mayhem is leading the charge. Americans also point out other indicators like DoorDash partnering with Klarna to allow consumers to eat now and pay later, prompting “burrito loans” jokes.

Meanwhile, job data remains strong. The Sahm Rule, which tracks unemployment trends, suggests no immediate recession risk.

However, recession memes indicate that consumers are unusually pessimistic about the economy, and experts warn that a vibecession can quickly induce panic and increase the chances of a real recession as consumer spending accounts for a large part of the GDP.