Exxon eyes $4.5B profit surge in Q3

America’s top oil producer, ExxonMobil, indicated that its third-quarter profits would rise by $4.5 billion from previous months, driven by higher refining margins.

The Iran war and blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route, have pushed fuel prices higher, while Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have further tightened fuel supplies.

Exxon’s regulatory filing suggests its refining business could report adjusted net income of $8.5 billion, more than double the previous quarter’s profit, according to BMO Capital Markets analyst Phillip Jungwirth.

However, lower crude oil prices could reduce earnings from Exxon’s upstream business, which produces oil and gas, by $1.3 billion. The company also expects a $700 million earnings boost from selling some upstream assets.

Rising fuel prices could increase political pressure on US President Donald Trump ahead of November’s midterm elections. Trump criticized Exxon and Chevron in August for making too much money.

Exxon is expected to release its Q3 results on October 30.