Election prediction market sites Kalshi and Polymarket will pay winners a combined $450 million following Republican candidate Donald Trump’s victory and other election outcomes.
Trump also won the popular vote.
Kalshi and Polymarket became the top two free apps on the Apple App Store as election betting surged ahead of the 2024 US presidential election.
As of Election Day, Polymarket saw over $4 billion in bets, while Kalshi had over $500 million.
But it’s a mystery French trader, known as “Trump whale,” who is poised to earn the most—nearly $50 million—on Polymarket after betting over $30 million on Trump’s win in the election, popular vote and key swing states.
He told the Wall Street Journal that he based wagers on analysis suggesting that traditional US polls were biased toward Vice President Kamala Harris and underestimated Trump’s support.
The whale said polls ignored the “shy Trump voter effect,” where survey respondents were reluctant to tell pollsters they supported the former president or didn’t respond to polls at all. He also used privately commissioned surveys to bolster his strategy.
Prediction markets recently gained attention. Trump’s chances of retaking the White House fell across Kalshi and Polymarket over the weekend but later climbed back up.