In recent weeks, Donald Trump’s chances of a second term have soared over 60% on Polymarket|Gage Skidmore|CC BY-SA 2.0
The crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket has identified a single French trader linked to four accounts wagering on Donald Trump’s victory.
According to the company, the whale behind the accounts was a French national with “extensive trading experience.” The cost of betting on Trump’s win on Polymarket surged, suggesting that the market sees his electoral chances as much stronger than recent polls indicate.
Opinion polls have indicated a statistical dead heat between him and Vice President Kamala Harris. However, on Polymarket, Trump’s chances have soared over 60% in recent weeks, prompting speculations on social media of deliberate manipulation.
Similar contracts on the prediction markets, PredictIt and Kalshi, show a narrower spread between the odds for Trump and Harris.