The National Retail Federation projects shoppers will shell out an average $890.49 per person on gifts, food, and decorations this holiday season
For the first time, the National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts that US consumers will spend over $1 trillion during the holiday season.
The NRF projects sales growth of 3.7%–4.2% from 2024, with shoppers planning to shell out an average of $890.49 per person on gifts, food, and decorations. It is the second-highest spending amount in the survey’s 23-year history.
The surprising optimism comes amid inflation, new tariffs, and the ongoing government shutdown.
Consumers remain price-conscious, often trading down to cheaper brands, but high-income households continue to drive spending.
NRF CEO Matthew Shay said retailers are working aggressively to absorb higher costs to shield lower-income shoppers from inflation.
Still, consumer confidence remains near a 50-year low.