Why is flight turbulence increasing?

The skies are getting bumpier, disrupting air travel. Yesterday, 12 people were injured in a Qatar Airways flight during turbulence, marking the second such incident in less than a week when air high above the earth’s surface turned turbulent and affected the airplane midair.

Last week, a Singapore Airlines flight hit severe disturbances mid-flight and plunged 6,000 ft, causing cabin chaos. The incident left 30 people injured and one dead.

Clear-air turbulence (CAT)—a stealthy form of turbulence—caused the drop.

Both incidents raise concerns as turbulence—one of the most unpredictable weather phenomena—becomes more common. Scientists believe such disturbances will continue to rise as air turbulence continues to intensify due to climate change.

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg also thinks the same. He recently stated that climate change is affecting air transportation. He said that turbulence has risen by 15%.

Buttigieg emphasized the need for evolving policies, technology, and infrastructure in response to climate change.

A study published last year in the Geophysical Research Letters found that between 1979 and 2020, the frequency of “severe-or-greater” turbulence—the strongest category of CAT—has increased 55% over the North Atlantic.

What is turbulence?
According to the National Weather Service, turbulence is a weather phenomenon that occurs when a plane enters a region of disturbed air filled with eddies and swirls that tend to make a flight bumpy.

What about weather predictions?
Current aircraft weather radar can predict about 75% of turbulence up to 18 hours in advance. But CAT, which is invisible, remains a challenge.

Researcher Emily Shepard from Swansea University suggests studying birds that have adapted to extreme turbulence could inform aircraft design.