The passing of Pope Francis stirs prediction market bets on his successor

Pope Francis, 88, passed away on Easter Monday of a stroke and heart failure, the Vatican said. The 266th leader of the Catholic Church was the first pontiff from Latin America and the first Jesuit to hold the position.

Millions around the world are mourning the Argentinian-born pope. But there are some people wagering on what happens now.

Several bets have popped up on the prediction market site Polymarket on who will be the new pope and which continent he will be from.

Users have spent over $3 million betting on the identity of the next pope, with Italian cardinal Pietro Parolin and Filipino prelate Luis Antonio Tagle as the frontrunners. 

Former Dallas bishop, Kevin Joseph Farrell, 77, is in charge of the Vatican until a successor is chosen.

By Friday morning, bets worth $354,000 had already been placed on whether there would be a new head of the Catholic Church this year.

Pope Francis was hospitalized in February for pneumonia in both lungs. He recovered and was back to performing his duties. His last meeting was with Vice President JD Vance on Sunday.

The papal selection, called the conclave, is a highly protected and closed process. Though betting on the next pope was common in the Middle Ages, it was banned for Catholics by Pope Gregory XIV in 1591, making it punishable by excommunication. The rule was repealed in 1918.

Polymarket has revived bets on the conclave and garnered criticism. Users debate the morality of betting on the pope’s health. However, some liken it to betting on corporate bankruptcies or celebrity scandals.